I'm not one of these folks (see A2 and Star) who goes into a race with every detail planned out. It is my belief that your body tells you how fast you should run. Sometimes you get to run faster than you thought you could :), mostly it's slower :(. But I did do a little Umstead research.
In preparation for Saturday's Umstead 100-mile extravaganza, I checked my runner's stats from last year (I was the pacer). He motored the first 2 laps, scooting around the 12.5 mile course in 2:30 per. The next couple he did in around 3 Hrs, then 3.5, then a couple of 4hrs. All in all he had a great race, under 26 hours.
When I'm running well, I don't have a significant 2nd 1/2 drop off, and that has been characteristic of my training for this race. However, what is uncharacteristic is that I have NO SPEED! They say speed kills, well, I shouldn't have a worry there then.
What can I expect? Well, I'd like to run U-24. Can I do it? I really don't know. Star is a believer in saying, "I will!" well, that's not my style. I think it intensifies the pressure and magnifies failure. IMHO it's better to state your goals and try. Accomplishing the goal is no more significant than trying to accomplish it. Yeah, yeah, I know what Yoda said, "either do or do not do, there is no try!" Well, Yoda's dead. Not only that, he's dead wrong. There is only try.
I'm going to try to run each of the first 6 laps in around 2:50. This will give me an hour leeway for the last two, in case I have a bit of a slow down. I believe I can do this, but my body may say otherwise on race day. 3 hour loops may be all I can manage, and that's ok. I believe I will finish comfortably within the race's time frame, and I do have a legitimate shot at 24. I believe I will make it.
This aint my first rodeo, it's my 14th, and 12 have ended with me still riding the bull at the bell. Let's hope this is lucky 13!